Summary
The upcoming week will feature several purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs), with a focus on services, though the U.S. will also release manufacturing PMIs. The ISM PMI is particularly significant for financial markets, with ISM showing an improving yet still contracting manufacturing sector, while S&P Global sees deterioration. Similar trends appear in services PMIs, where both show expansion but at different levels of strength. Globally, services PMIs indicate expansion in regions like China, India, and the Euro area, while economic growth figures for Q2 reveal varied performances: South Korea's growth is down, the Euro area shows modest growth, and Japan rebounds. Saudi Arabia’s GDP contraction is easing, while trade balances improve in Brazil and Germany but worsen in France and the U.S. China's trade surplus remains large but is slightly reduced.
In the oil market, the Baker Hughes oil rig count remains stable, with WTI prices rising slightly. ExxonMobil’s long-term energy outlook forecasts global GDP doubling by 2050, driving a 15% increase in energy demand. The energy mix will shift away from coal, with modest growth in oil and significant expansion in solar and wind. However, ExxonMobil emphasizes the critical need for continued investment in oil production to prevent a sharp decline in supply, especially given the rapid depletion rates in shale oil.
Economic data underscores the influence of inflation and unemployment on central bank policies. The Euro area and U.S. show stable yet mixed inflation trends, with consumer spending boosting U.S. GDP growth. However, rising U.S. debt and interest payments pose long-term risks to economic growth.
