Summary
The upcoming week will see multiple countries reporting on their industrial production for either May or June. Saudi Arabia’s industrial production is forecasted to grow by 0.5% in May, following a significant drop in April due to reduced oil production. Turkey is expected to see a 0.5% increase after a previous decline. Italy's industrial production is likely to continue its downward trend with a 2.1% contraction in May. The UK anticipates a 0.5% rise, recovering from a previous decline. In the Euro Area, industrial production is expected to decrease further, while India and China are predicted to show robust growth of around 5%. Mexico’s growth is slowing, and the UK’s GDP for May is projected to grow by 1%. Singapore’s GDP growth is estimated at 0.9%, while China's GDP growth is expected to slow to 5%.
In the oil market, the Baker Hughes oil rig count remains unchanged, with WTI averaging $83.3. Guyana’s economy is booming due to its rapidly developing oil fields, with GDP growth projected at 33.9% for 2024. The country's oil production is expected to significantly increase, potentially making it the richest country by GDP per capita in purchasing power parity by 2029.
The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for June indicates increasing supply chain pressures, potentially affecting inflation. Meanwhile, UNCTAD reports that global trade growth turned positive in Q1 2024, driven by exports from China, India, and the US. However, geopolitical issues and industrial policies could hinder trade growth. UNCTAD highlights the risks of supply concentration, trade fragmentation, and increased protectionism, which could lead to higher trade costs and uncertainties, impacting global value chains and seaborne trade.
