Summary
In the coming week, manufacturing PMI data will be released across several countries. In the Euro area, while PMIs are marginally improving, they remain at decade lows, with France and Germany showing slight increases but still contracting. The UK's PMI is expansionary but slowing, moving closer to normal levels, while the US continues to indicate marginal contraction. India's PMI remains robust and expansionary. Germany's Ifo business climate index, Mexico’s GDP, and trade balances for Saudi Arabia and Japan are also on the horizon, with Japan's balance of trade expected to shift to a deficit. Meanwhile, central banks in Indonesia and Korea are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and attention will be on the Fed chair's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
In the oil market, the Baker Hughes rig count declined slightly, while WTI and natural gas prices saw minimal increases. The market has stabilized considerably in 2024, with fewer significant price movements compared to the volatility of 2022 and 2023. Contango has been prevalent, and the ULSD premium to ICE gasoil has turned increasingly negative.
In global trade, there have been notable increases in tonne-miles across various shipping sectors, reflecting shifts in trade routes and demand. This has led to higher bunker sales in ports like Singapore and Fujairah, while sales in regions like Rotterdam and Antwerp have declined. Overall, the first half of the year has seen mixed trends in port activity, influenced by geopolitical factors and changing trade patterns.
