Summary
In the upcoming week, various economic indicators will be released, including confidence indexes, GDP growth rates, and early inflation estimates. In the U.S., consumer confidence is neutral, while in Germany, it slightly improved but remains negative. The Eurozone's economic sentiment is stagnant, reflecting ongoing de-industrialization, and industrial sentiment is declining. China's manufacturing PMI is expected to further contract, while India's remains strong, albeit slightly reduced. GDP growth is slowing in India, Turkey, and France, with India still showing robust growth. The U.S. is expected to maintain a 2.4% growth rate. Inflation continues to decline across major economies, with slight increases in the producer price index in Singapore and Brazil.
In the oil market, the Baker Hughes oil rig count remains steady, while WTI oil and natural gas prices have decreased. The U.S. Dollar has weakened, with its index falling from 105 to below 101. The long-standing negative correlation between the dollar and oil prices has recently become positive, but a reversion to the historical negative correlation is likely, especially with a potential U.S. Federal Reserve pivot.
The Dutch Central Planning Bureau's World Trade Monitor reports a slight increase in global trade, though earlier figures were revised downward. Imports fell in the EU, China, and the Eurozone, while U.S. and U.K. imports rose. Exports showed a stronger performance, particularly from China. Global industrial production is marginally up, with mixed results across regions. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates soon, but there are concerns that future inflation may force rate hikes again.
