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Insight Weekly Market Report Market Report - 09.06.2026

Market Report Week 24 - 09.06.2026

Other insights Jun. 09, 2026
Market Report Week 24 - 09.06.2026

Oil market update: Day 100 of the Strait of Hormuz blockade 


Today, it is 100 days since the war in Iran started, and the Strait of Hormuz was more or less immediately blocked. An unprecedented oil crisis began, which the IEA labelled worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s and the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2023, combined. 


When the war started, prices (Brent front-month contract) initially rose from USD 70 to above USD 80, and it took about two weeks to reach USD 100. Brent ended March at USD 118, which was the closing peak (excluding intra-day moves) over the last 100 days. 
In April, the crisis spread to the physical and refined product markets. Dated Brent traded above USD 140, and, notably, ICE gas oil and jet fuel cracks spiked.

Chart 1

However, April and, not least, May were characterised by two major themes that narrowed the spread between Dated Brent and the Brent future, lowered cracks, and pushed the Brent futures contract back below USD 100.

Bunker Port Brief

Fujairah

The key development this week is the continued lack of replenishment cargoes into Fujairah, Oman, and the UAE, with VLSFO availability effectively limited to a single supplier in Fujairah/Khor Fakkan. Combined with ongoing infrastructure outages at FOTT and restricted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, supply is expected to remain critically tight next week, keeping bunker premiums elevated and availability constrained.

New York

Demand on spot has been muted. Seeing elevated premiums to underlying indices on all grades due to material availability. 

Port Louis

A quieter week than the last few, with less volume noted. The local MGO market remains extremely weak, even with some of the best prices in region being seen.

Durban

The market remains stagnant at the moment, especially on HSFO. VLSFO stems whilst seen are minimal in size, however suppliers are keen to move volume which has now become more readily available. LSGO remains tight and high priced, with the majority of the diesel in the market going towards the automotive industry.

Walvis Bay

Poor weather as winter comes in is seeing the priority of vessels shifted into Walvis Bay anchorage, which then includes standard STS calling costs.
Avails are fine on VLSFO, but HSFO is only covered by a few suppliers, subject to volume on firm dates.

For port availability and demand, download the full report here.

1: The oil market believes in a deal “tomorrow”

Chart 2

Since the April 8 ceasefire, the market has basically bought into the narrative that the war would soon end and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Though the oil market is sceptical of any news of an imminent deal, whether it comes from Trump or “affiliated” media like Axios, the market has not been ready to price in an extended period of time with a closed Strait. No one in the market wants to be caught long the day there is a deal, notably as the front-month Brent futures contract is typically two months ahead, currently August. However, it may be increasingly difficult for the White House to convince the market that “a deal” is near. There have likely not been any talks last week, and there were severe military clashes between the US and Iran over the weekend and between Israel and Iran yesterday. Saturday, Iran claimed to have hit several “enemy bases” in the region, after the US bombed Iranian radar installations earlier in the week.  Furthermore, it has become clear that an Iranian red line is that a possible 60-day ceasefire should include a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. However, the clashes in southern Lebanon may continue despite the recent “ceasefire” agreed between Lebanon and Israel last week and the ceasefire between Israel and Iran this week.  The number of net-long speculative positions in Brent and WTI has also dropped over the last two months. It underscores that the market is increasingly losing faith in higher prices. Positioning is no longer more skewed to the upside than before the war started. That said, if a trustworthy reopening of the Strait is announced, the closing of speculative long positions may be less pronounced. It limits downside in prices, whereas any escalation may have a bigger impact on the upside, as was seen Monday morning. The Brent curve and the refined product and fuel oil curves also remain in backwardation, implying that the current tightness is seen as temporary. 

2: The mitigating factors have worked

Chart 3

The market has proved far better at adapting to the supply shock than feared. Not least, the decline in Chinese oil imports has been very significant. The US has also sharply increased its exports, and sanctioned oil at sea has been sold, while a massive fall in demand and strategic inventories have prevented a complete breakdown in the market.  Notably, the market has been surprised by China's flexibility in scaling back crude oil imports. Over the past year, imports have averaged around 12 million barrels per day (mb/d). In April, imports fell below 9.5 mb/d, and various media reports indicate that they have fallen to around 8 mb/d in May as imports by sea have continued to drop. Official import numbers are expected this week. However, these mitigating factors are, in general, temporary buffers, and looking one to two months ahead, it will be difficult to avoid upward pressure on prices as global inventories continue to drop. 
The US will likely not be able to keep its current export level, demand is seasonally picking up, and the “sanctioned oil at sea buffer” is now gone.  The big unknown is Chinese crude oil imports. Apparently, China has reduced refinery runs, which is counterintuitive given the higher and very profitable cracks. On the other hand, Chinese inventories grew significantly last year as China largely absorbed the global oversupply, implying that China can continue to keep import at a minimum.  Quite simply, a larger fall in demand is needed for the market to remain balanced, and, in our view, higher prices are required to achieve that.  

Chart 2 Chart 3

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